Alice's CINQ 388 and 389 Blog Posts

CINQ 388 Blog Post 11 (4/25/2021)

Financial Model: 

  • Assumptions – Revenues and Costs 
    • Production costs would be estimated at around $0.10 ~ $0.20 if we compare our device to the common pregnancy test, which can be manufactured in China for $0.02 each. Each unit will be priced according to cubic meters. Additional costs of ~$0.15 will be derived from shipping, handling, and packaging.
  • Revenue Streams 
    • Sale projections 
      • There are currently no readily available SCD diagnostic devices established in Sierra Leone but one of our competitors is the SickleSCAN device. However, it is less accessible in LMIC countries as it requires a blood dilution and costs $4.50 per test. Another SCD test is collecting dried blood spot (DBS) samples from newborns in high-risk areas and sending them to centralized laboratories for isoelectric focusing analysis. These are costly which is evident in their implementation in Angola and Uganda, with costs estimated to be $15.36 and $9.94 per test. Our estimated lateral flow diagnostic device prototype and production bills of materials is currently $2.98 but further optimization of the device will reduce the cost to ideally less than $1.00 (US), which is the gold standard. 
        • Since the DBS program is the only one that has been tested in high-risk areas, we are looking to sell our device at $10.00 per unit, which is $5 cheaper than the average DBS tests.
        • Based on this, we will loosely predict that our sales projection will be $10,000 in our first year of implementation
  • Cost structure 
    • Costs of Goods Sold 
      • OEM Sickle Cell Test ($.50) 
      • Shipping/transportation ($.25)
      • Packaging Costs ($.20) 
      • Total: $.95 per test strip 
  • Personnel Expenses (commissions) 
    • Hiring a Project Manager/Relationship Manager: Salary of $30,000
    • Networking budget of $10,000
    • Operating Expenses of $10,000

Income Statements 

Selling Price per Unit ($5.50) 

Bulk Pricing ($4.50) 

  • Cash Flow Plan
    • Money from grants 
    • Make test strip 
      • Manufacturing in China 
      • Supplies 
      • Lab testing 
  • Sell to hospital and health facilities 
    • Let fewer babies die due to proper treatment allocation due to now available screening diagnostic
  • Make more strips (cycle repeats with prolonged growth)
  • Potential Estimates for steady-state over the next two years (using previous data analysis) 
    • Pessimistic 
      • $100,000
    • Optimistic 
      • $250,000
    • Realistic 
      • $170,000
        • Given that via wholesale routes, the gross profit is estimated at $3.55/strip based on estimates of similarly outsourced manufactured profits. Given that there are nearly 300k babies born in Sierra Leone, this figure would come out to the gross profit from nearly 50,000 devices sold, which can be a realistic volume when considering the birth rates of major hospitals in the country.

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