The most innovative and groundbreaking technology currently being developed is Artificial Intelligence. While we may be decades away from being able to create any form of sentient life, basic Artificially Intelligent systems are already being implemented with the capability of basic machine learning. The field of artificial intelligence has the potential to progress our society into the next great technological age. But despite the promise that artificial intelligence shows, we as a society must remember to tread carefully; lest we risk destroying ourselves by blindly chasing technological advancement.
Society is currently struggling to cope with the rampant integrations of modern technology into our lives. Inventions such as personal Drones have become widely accepted and popular. Despite this, Government regulations have yet to properly adapt to manage the significant risks to our personal privacy that Drones pose. Another invention, the Self-Driving Car, is quickly being pushed into the consumer market and the workforce, destroying countless jobs in the process. Even the rise in popularity of streaming services has completely changed the way we consume media. While no initial damage is seen in this scenario, the adoption of streaming has created tension in Hollywood from The Writer’s Guild of America who are threatening to go on strike until their, now grossly outdated, contracts are appropriately updated to account for the Streaming Age.[1] Such a strike could put a halt to the most popular television and movie content ranging from HBO’s Game of Thrones to the Marvel’s Cinematic Universe.
The pattern you should be recognizing is that collateral damage is an unavoidable aspect of innovation and invention. Society correctly views advances in technology in a positive light, though most fail to recognize the resulting shadow that is cast. No invention comes without damaging the old. In fact, this damage is recognized and studied as a pivotal aspect of economics and entrepreneurship. As described by Lehigh University Economics Professor, Frank R. Gunter,
“…innovative or Schumpeterian entrepreneurs tend to destroy existing products, processes, or markets in the process of replacing them with new ones; a process referred to as creative-destruction. Therefore it is Schumpeterian entrepreneurs that are responsible for much technological change.”[2]
Given that creative-destruction is a given and unavoidable factor in technological advancement, the next logical question to ask is whether or not a new technology’s benefits outweigh the creative-destruction its creation may cause. On the surface, this question may seem foolish. If an invention made people worse off, then it would never be made. However, I do not see this to be the case. It is very common that an invention comes around that is not so easily categorized by its benefits and drawbacks. A prime example of such an invention would be nuclear energy.
Nuclear energy is a controversial invention for a multitude of reasons, the most obvious of which would be its proliferation with nuclear weaponry. In order for the rest of the world to have access to nuclear energy, the knowledge and resources for nuclear weaponry must also be shared. Nuclear energy also has the habit of failing on a grand stage, resulting in such scenarios as the Chernobyl and Fukushima Disasters. Yet, despite such negative side effects, nuclear energy’s benefits may still outweigh its dangers. A study conducted by NASA concluded that even when including the death tolls from Chernobyl and Fukushima that nuclear energy has already saved 1.8 million lives by reducing the amount of fossil fuels in the air (See Figure 1).[3]
The huge problem is that these talks did not occur until after nuclear weapons had the chance to damage our world. Whilst developing the first nuclear weapons, the United States government was far too interested in the short-term goal of ending the World War. Never did they stop and think about the long-term repercussions of inventing such a devastating weapon. Because these discussions did not occur until after the weapons’ invention, the world was forced into the Nuclear Arms Race of the Cold War.
For the first time in human history, we had invented something that could cause the genocide of the human race. We as a species are very lucky to have survived this invention, but while we have evaded catastrophe with one invention, who is to say we will be so lucky in the future. With our understanding of the nature of invention and our past mistakes, it should be obvious to us that future inventions will pose a consistently greater threat to our civilization.
Astronomer and astrophysicist Frank Drake recognized this phenomenon and proposed that all Technologically Advanced Civilizations, not only human civilization, must deal with this unavoidable phenomenon. He then used this thesis to develop an equation to estimate the total number of technological civilizations in the galaxy. The Drake Equation (See Figure 2)[4], as it became known, states that a technological civilization’s lifetime is limited by how long it can stave off self-destruction. Meaning that no matter how many technologically advanced civilizations are created, the odds that two or more civilizations will live to overlap with one another drastically decreases the chances of us finding another technologically advanced civilization.
Humanity is now faced with an ever-growing amount of threats due to our inventions. Nuclear Weaponry is a very blunt and straightforward means to an end for our civilization, but it is not alone. Pollution levels are another significant threat to humanity. And, just as with all previous and post-technological damage, people did not attempt to solve the problem of pollution until its effects were already being felt. If this pattern continues, eventually we will create something that will destroy us before we have the chance to make amends.
Artificial intelligence does have the potential to revolutionize the world. But if we do not put proper limitations on the technology before integrating it into society, it has the potential to destroy us as a technologically advanced civilization. While the fully implemented technology is still at least decades away, we as a society currently have the knowledge and the foresight to begin speculating on the effects that Artificial intelligence will have on our society. Perhaps by having this discussion now, we will be able to properly regulate this new technology before it has a chance to grow out of hand.
Treating artificial intelligence as one invention is inappropriate. In reality, artificial intelligence is a field of study that will ultimately encompass countless future inventions. Like Nuclear Energy, computers, and countless other innovations before it, Artificial intelligence is an ever-expanding field of study with a multitude of applications. For the sake of this argument, let us view the evolution of artificial intelligence in three main stages: Artificially Intelligent Tools, Artificially Intelligent Humans, and Artificially Intelligent Super Beings.
Artificial intelligence at its core is a machine’s ability to learn and adapt to information. From a computer science standpoint, this means that an artificial intelligence is a machine capable of programming itself. This definition is the core of Artificial intelligence and is known as Machine Learning.[5] It is through Machine Learning that artificially intelligent tools are beginning to be created. As with inventions discussed previously in this paper, these tools will have obvious benefits to society. Machines will have the ability to learn many magnitudes faster than a human. This will result in a technological boom. Humans such as the Schumpeterian Entrepreneur will no longer be able to compete with self-learning machines. As these tools become better at solving problems, they will become the sole provider of new inventions. Without the proper time to manage the flow of new technology, we will be putting ourselves at serious risk of becoming consumed by our own technology.
This is all presuming that regulations are not set in place to prevent artificially intelligent tools from destroying the balance of technological advancement and society’s adaption to technology. If regulated properly, these tools will lead us into a golden age of innovation, and we as a species will achieve technological advancements far beyond our own capabilities. What is important is that we manage these advancements appropriately and continue to prepare to minimize the collateral damage that these inventions will cause.
Presuming that we properly control artificially intelligent tools, we will then be faced with the next form of artificial intelligence, Artificially Intelligent Humans. “God created man in His own image”[6] and mankind’s infatuation with itself has led many to dream of the day that we create life. That is why I believe that our society, should it live to be given the chance, will attempt to create artificial intelligence that copies the human mind. There is no logical explanation to why we would invent this technology. We as a society do not benefit in any way from introducing this technology into the world. Such an invention would only cause people strife. We would be forced to regulate such problems as how quickly A.I. Humans would be produced and we would need to decide their place in society. These topics would be extremely controversial and in a worst-case scenario lead to an ultimate separation of our world comparable to the separation of the Confederate States from the United States over Slavery.
For these reasons, I believe that Artificially Intelligent Humans should be strictly banned from development. However, humanity does not always act rationally, and I predict that with the aid of Artificially Intelligent tools, A.I. Humans will eventually be created. What is important is that people begin discussing now how this invention will be integrated into society. Unlike other conventional inventions A.I. Humans would serve no purpose other than feeding humanities own ego. As such, it has no immediate benefits to outweigh the damages it will cause, making the technologies collateral damage seem even greater.
Presuming that Artificially Intelligent Humans are successfully integrated into society, Humankind would only have one logical step left in the field of artificial intelligence. Once humanity has mastered the human mind, we will want to improve. Our need to further technology will lead us to create Artificial intelligence that far surpasses the abilities of humanity. Artificially Intelligent Super Beings could take many shapes, all of which would pose serious threats to humanity. Perhaps we will expand upon the A.I. Humans and remove what we perceive to be “defects”, or perhaps we will take our artificially intelligent tools and lend their learning algorithms and processing speed to a sentient artificial intelligence. The problem is that inventions such as these are so far into our future, that it is nearly impossible for us to properly predict how they will be formed. But if artificial intelligence is used to create a sentient life better than humanity, then there is no need for me to explain why humanity would be in danger; Charles Darwin already has.
We cannot predict future technologies in perfect detail, but by viewing how technology has evolved up until today, we can create a relatively strong conjecture as to how these future technologies will affect us. Artificial intelligence appears to be a gateway to faster and far superior technological advances. Each of these advances runs the risk of hurting, if not destroying humanity. Perhaps we will create a weapon we cannot control, or perhaps we will create something that crashes our world’s economy leading to social collapse. Perhaps humanity will slowly be phased out of existence in favor for a Superior Artificially Intelligent Race. The possible threats stemming from artificial intelligence is endless, and perhaps it is inevitable that we will not be able to cope with and control these inventions for long. Maybe our civilization’s fate is to fly too close to the sun, and like Greek mythology’s Icarus, plummet to our deaths. We may never be able to escape the doom described in the Drake Equation, but our best hope to stave off destruction is through planning, preparation, and a little forethought.
Works Cited:
[1] Gaar, Brian, and Eddy Rivas. "What Does the Hollywood WRITERS STRIKE Mean For You? - The Know Entertainment News." YouTube. Ed. Kdin Jezen. The Know, 09 Apr. 2017. Web. 24 Apr. 2017. <https://youtu.be/RHtMT3G32PE?t=1m28s>. [2] Gunter, Frank R. "A Simple Model of Entrepreneurship For Principles of Economics Courses." Journal of Economic Education 43.4 (2012): 11-12. [3] Kharecha, Pushker A., and James E. Hansen. "Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power." Environmental Science & Technology 47.9 (2013): 4889-895. Web. [4] Catling, David C. "P. 1107. Far-off Worlds, Distant Suns." 7. Far-off Worlds, Distant Suns - Very Short Introductions. Oxford University Press, 20 Nov. 2015. Web. 24 Apr. 2017. <http://www.veryshortintroductions.com/view/10.1093/actrade/ 9780199586455.001.0001/actrade-9780199586455-chapter-7?rskey=w3pUqA&result=1>. [5] Mohammed, Mohssen, Muhammad Badruddin Khan, and Eihab Bashier Mohammed Bashier. "Machine Learning." CRCnetBASE. CRC Press, n.d. Web. 24 Apr. 2017. <http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/book/10.1201/9781315371658>. [6] "Gen. 1:27." King James Bible. Nashville, TN: Holman Bible, 1973. N. pag. Print.
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