Myanmar’s aligned rebel forces are continuing to make significant gains against the ruling Junta in northeastern Myanmar despite the temporary ceasefire previously brokered by China. They recently captured a significant town and trade zone close to the Chinese border. 

 

After a short period of democracy, Myanmar reverted back to military rule in 2021 when the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, performed a coup. The Tatmadaw did this because they claimed that the recent 2020 election in Myanmar had not been conducted fairly. They decided as a result that they should retake control of the government until a fair election could be conducted, but there has been no timeline of when that will be. This military rule was immediately met with protests in the street by Myanmar citizens and the country rapidly declined into what could be seen as a civil war. 

 

The Three Brotherhood Alliance began fighting back against the Tatamadaw in October of this year. This group is a combination of different ethnic groups throughout Myanmar and consists of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA). Due to the escalating situation, China decided to step in and help the rebels and the military reach an agreement on a temporary ceasefire just earlier in December. Still, the very next day there were reports of continued fighting and significant gains specifically by the TNLA. There hasn’t been a date set on when the ceasefire will go into play or if it will at all. 

 

This growing conflict in Myanmar will fully shape the country and affect the lives of every citizen in Myanmar. If these gains continue by the rebel forces and a new government needs to be put in place, they will be tasked with finding a system that actually works and lasts. Even when the country was a democracy for 10 years, the military still held significant power in the government and remained in control of multiple aspects of the country. With a new government in place it will be interesting to see if that remains, or if they will be able to kick them out once and for all. This could also put Myanmar at a disadvantage however, with a military that does not protect them. 

 

It is also very interesting to see the Three Brotherhood Alliance showcase different ethnic groups in Myanmar coming together against a common enemy. Myanmar has always been a country full of many different ethnic groups, including many minorities that are not as protected. In the past with the military under control, these different groups would fend for themselves and be concerned only with their own people. To see them come together is very refreshing. Yet, if they succeed in their goals against the military, will they continue to be allied with one another or will this only last if the groups have a common enemy? 

https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/myanmar-ethnic-alliance-continues-gains-despite-china-brokered-ceasefire/