A military coup in 2021 toppled the Myanmar government  and the civil war has raged consistently for the last three years. Last month, Laos hosted the Association for Southeast Asian Nations Summit and brought together the leaders from all respective countries with one pressing issue on the forefront: Myanmar. For this blog post, I will combine the Center for Strategic & International Studies article linked above, “The Latest on Southeast Asia: Junta Control Hangs in the Balance” and a Time article “How Myanmar’s Civil War Could Actually End”. To briefly go over the contents of each article, the CSIS piece discusses escalating resistance against the military junta from resistance groups such as the Kachin Independence Army and the National Democratic Alliance Army. Though these are positive, yet violent, steps towards ending the conflict, and the junta retaliates with any means possible. This ASEAN conference was the first time in three years that a senior foreign official was sent – perhaps signaling a stronger urge to resolve the conflict and contribute again to ASEAN. This ties into the TIME article which discusses how the conflict could come to an end. Shortly and blatantly, the article says that the end will come when one military inevitably collapses. TIME spoke to eight experts on the conflict who agreed with this timeline. Third party actors like China have been involved and in January 2024 brokered a ceasefire as an attempt of resolve.

The difficulty ending the strife and conflict in Myanmar stuck out to me because it reminded me of our discussion in class about community, top-down, and other methods of reconciliation. Reading these articles made me wonder and tie it to the case of Cambodia where residual resentment and hurt still remain. As ASEAN becomes more interconnected and a stronger group, I imagine that they will have to play an instrumental role in not only ending the conflict but assisting in returning Myanmar into a growing, strong state. Those who fled may now come home and we may witness the same outsider feeling that Balikbayan returning to the Phillippines feel. Thus far, the articles reference attempts by China to broker ceasefires and recognition of resistance groups by India. With pressure on fronts beyond resistance groups, Ewe with TIME finds that the fall of the junta must be near. A quote from the TIME piece that stuck out to me is “‘[The] junta’s side, they don’t even know what they’re fighting for.” With a lack of morale and guidance, as well as loss of critical infrastructure and key locations, it is imaginable that the junta could fall. However, despite this “positive” outlook, I wondered if since they are an illegitimate authority if these losses that would typically be detrimental to a rationally acting, government military will affect them as much. If power is not removed from the junta’s hands and placed back into a proper government, they could remain in power even with several hits against themselves. This quandary makes me think about if it may escalate to needing ASEAN military intervention or to be brought to a larger international level like the UN. We have discussed in depth onset of conflict, conflicts within southeast asian nations, and especially post-conflict and ending conflict making this current event and the conflict in Myanmar even more pertinent.