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Refine the detailed income statement for your venture for two years (at six-month intervals) or a more appropriate time scale. Explicitly state the assumptions that underlie your financial model.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UtqK6RgJZu4CY-PxDmE8mOEYOrnFLLXNnSJtWPgsFM8/edit?usp=sharing
Assumptions:
- Sierra Leone and other developing countries may not have the ability to afford the device, so these costs will be taken up by the following partners, potential donors and organizations who have innovation fund programs that could fund our project for several years.
- Our goal is to make an IMPACT, and national screening program for all newborns. It is not about making a profit. Therefore, profits from bulk sales are reinvested in the project and SCD relief efforts, such as patient support, education, penicillin therapies and into families. Profits from Direct Sales can also be reinvested to organizations like Sickle Cell Society and others
- The venture will operate with economies of scale and we expect most sales to be from bulk pricing. Current estimations are unit prices of $4.50 for bulk pricing and $5.50 for direct consumer channels.
- Our plan is to have the health care systems in Sierra Leone well equipped to use the test strip directly and advocate to diagnose 75% of newborns for SCT/SCD in the third year after introducing our device. By year 3, 330,000 units will be sold and distributed to hospitals in the country.
Refine the Business Model for your venture based on your revenue model. You may use the Osterwalder BMC to refine your business model but prepare one or more visuals that explain how your venture will work and accomplish your BHAG.
Develop an M&E plan for your venture.
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- Our Distribution Strategy consists of receiving grants from donors like WHO or UNICEF to fund our venture. Our device will be made in a manufacturing plant in China and will be shipped to our staff members in Sierra Leone. Then in Sierra Leone, the majority of the devices will be distributed to hospitals while some devices will be distributed to pharmacies. By introducing our device into Sierra Leonean hospitals, we can make a long-lasting impact by diagnosing for SCD early and using our profits to fund SCD relief efforts and treatments like penicillin prophylaxis. For Monitoring and Evaluation, our staff will collect data from hospitals in which our device is in their standard operating procedures. This would be after the hospital staff are trained by our training expert. Then, our project manager will record data like the number of SCD babies born in each hospital, the total births at each hospital and the SCT allele frequency in babies born.
- Clearly list all assumptions
- We are planning to launch our product in Sierra Leone in Summer 2023. By cross-referencing a population density map and a map of all the public hospitals in Sierra Leone, we have constructed an ordered list of hospitals where we will introduce our device. One year after launch, we expect to be implemented in 10 densely populated hospitals encompassing many areas of the country. Two years after launch, we expect to be in 25 hospitals, and three years after launch, we expect to be in at least 50 hospitals diagnosing 75% of the newborns.
- To fund our venture, we will need $1.25 million over the next 5 years. Donor Spending on Child Mortality in Sierra Leone will total to $75 million over the next five years. Our venture can eliminate 4% of child mortality in Sierra Leone, so it is well worth the investment from donors.
- Our staff includes: hiring a project manager, relationship manager, and training expert. Managers will have access to transportation, internet, and networking budgets. Additionally, we will use an advertising budget to raise awareness of the severity of SCD as well as the newborn testing options available. The venture will operate with economies of scale and we expect most sales to be from bulk pricing. Current estimations are unit prices of $4.50 for bulk pricing and $5.50 for direct consumer channels.
- The newly born infants in Sierra Leone are our target users, yet we plan to sell the devices in bulk to donors such as WHO or UNICEF, who will help distribute them to the public hospitals. Additionally, we have accounted for some direct sales to pharmacies in our sales projections.
- Identify short-term and long-term success metrics.
Short-term: We are planning to launch our product in Sierra Leone by the Summer of 2023. The newly born infants in Sierra Leone are our target users, yet we plan to sell the devices in bulk to WHO or UNICEF, who will help distribute them to the public hospitals we prioritize. Our plan is to successfully screen about 75% of newborns in Sierra Leone for SCT/SCD after three years of introducing our device.
Long-term: 5 years from now, our metric for success is the venture being sustainable and autonomous from our input. The operations of the project are to be absorbed into the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health which will continue screening for SCD/SCT in infants. Then from our launch, our goal of about 90% of newborns being diagnosed will be reached.
- Identify specific methods to measure any metrics.
- Our profits from direct sales could be reinvested into organizations such as Sickle Society and education efforts while profits from bulk sales would be reinvested into the project and penicillin prophylaxis treatments, which costs $184 per each saved year of life for SCD patients.
- Five years from launch, the venture will be sustainable and autonomous from our input as we will shift our focus to look at the intellectual side: strategic gaps, false positives/negatives. The project will be absorbed into the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health which will continue screening for SCD/SCT for newborns because they have the authority and funds to sustain our venture.
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