“The mapping shows how the population in Africa exposed to malaria could sharply increase after 2040. LIS-MAL is a refined model created with the JRC’s contribution on water dynamics. Tanser is a rainfall-based model.”
This new study uses more intricate modelling. It incorporates factors such as the evaporation of water, its infiltration into the ground, the capacity of soils to absorb moisture, and the presence of rivers and lakes.
The research confirms earlier findings from less complex models suggesting that the territory in Africa suitable for malaria transmission will contract in the 2011-2040 period, before sharply gaining in size between 2041 and 2070.
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/refined-modelling-helps-map-future-spread-malaria-africa